Diagnostics for tail dependence in time-lagged random fields of precipitation     

Agne Burauskaite-Harju  Anders Grimvall 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(3-4):629-636

Weather extremes often occur along fronts passing different sites with some time lag. Here, we show how such temporal patterns can be taken into account when exploring inter-site dependence of extremes. We incorporate time lags into existing models and into measures of extremal associations and their relation to the distance between the investigated sites. Furthermore, we define summarising parameters that can be used to explore tail dependence for a whole network of stations in the presence of fixed or stochastic time lags. Analysis of hourly precipitation data from Sweden showed that our methods can prevent underestimation of the strength and spatial extent of tail dependencies.  相似文献   

Experimental study of strain localization in sensitive clays     

Anders Samstad Gylland  Hans Petter Jostad  Steinar Nordal 《Acta Geotechnica》2014,9(2):227-240

For evaluation of slope stability in materials displaying strain-softening behavior, knowledge concerning the failed state material response is of importance. Here, soft sensitive clay is studied. Such clays behave contractant at failure, which for undrained conditions yields a strain-softening behavior governed by the generation of excess pore water pressure. Strain softening is further linked with material instability and the phenomenon of strain localization. In the case of shear band formation, internal pore pressure gradients are then expected to be present for globally undrained conditions in the sensitive clay due to its low permeability. In the present study, this hypothesis and its implications on the global response and shear band properties are investigated. Utilizing an experimental setup with a modified triaxial cell allowing for shear band formation, the effect of varying the displacement rate is studied. Onset of strain localization is interpreted to occur just before or at the peak shear strength. A strong rate dependency of the softening response is observed. Increasing displacement rates give raised brittleness in terms of the slope of the global softening curve due to accumulating pore pressure. Also, reduced shear band thickness and a shear band inclination approaching 45° are obtained for increasing rates. In the context of slope failure in such materials, the rate dependency in the post-peak state opens up for a large variation in behavior, all depending on time as an important factor.  相似文献   

The impacts of a Laki-like eruption on the present Swedish society     

Karin Mossberg Sonnek  Tomas Mårtensson  Ester Veibäck  Peter Tunved  Håkan Grahn  Pontus von Schoenberg  Niklas Brännström  Anders Bucht 《Natural Hazards》2017,88(3):1565-1590

In this study, we analyse and discuss the possible impacts on the Swedish society of a volcanic eruption on Iceland, emitting ash particles and large quantities of sulphur dioxide. A scenario was developed, based on the historical Laki eruption of 1783–1784, to describe the content of a potential sulphur fog over time in Sweden. Due to its high complexity and the many uncertainties in the underpinning scientific data, the scenario was developed using a cross-disciplinary approach incorporating experts from different scientific fields. An analysis of the impacts of the hazard on human health, environment and technical equipment was then performed and, finally, representatives from national authorities assessed the overall societal challenges in responding to the consequences of a massive volcanic eruption. The analysis shows that it is the peak concentrations of sulphur dioxide and sulphuric acid rather than the longer periods of moderate concentrations that contribute most to the negative consequences for human health and environment. Altogether, three societal challenges were identified: the ability to compile and disseminate relevant information fast enough, to perform continuous measurements of concentrations of different substances in affected areas and to meet the large demand for medical care.  相似文献   

Comparison of geotechnical uncertainties linked to different soil characterization methods     

Mwajuma Ibrahim Lingwanda  Anders Prästings  Stefan Larsson  Dalmas L. Nyaoro 《Geomechanics and Geoengineering》2017,12(2):137-151

One of the essential inputs in settlement prediction models is the soil modulus, which may be obtained from laboratory tests or estimated from in situ measurements. The total uncertainty in predicting the confined modulus of a sandy soil is quantified with data from side-by-side in situ testing using the standard penetration test, the static cone penetration test, the light dynamic probing and the laboratory oedometer test. To estimate transformation errors, correlations are proposed between in situ and laboratory data. The results indicate that similar magnitudes of total uncertainties are associated with the in situ methods, which are approximately twice as high as those from the direct oedometer method. The quantified uncertainties are an important input for reliability-based designs of foundations under similar soil conditions.  相似文献   

Observations of active-chromosphere stars – V. A photometric study of the RS CVn system CF Tuc (HD 5303)     

G. J. Anders  ‡  D. W. Coates  ‡  K. Thompson‡  J. L. Innis†‡ 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,310(2):377-386

The Wilson–Devinney program is used to model 27 light curves (our own and others) for CF Tuc. We find new parameters for the binary system, and estimate the longitudes and radii of the spots on the cooler secondary star. We also find a strong tendency for spots on the cooler star to appear in a limited range of longitudes, rather than to migrate fairly rapidly as for other RS CVn systems. There is evidence that the mean light level of the cooler star is varying cyclically.
The orbital period clearly changes discontinuously. We discuss this, and the apparently cyclic variations in mean light level, in relation to the model proposed by Applegate.  相似文献   

Tracking herring schools with a high resolution sonar. Variations in horizontal area and relative echo intensity   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Misund  Ole Arve; Ferno  Anders; Pitcher  Tony; Totland  Bjorn 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1998,55(1):58-66

  相似文献   

Metop-GRAS in-orbit instrument performance   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Magnus Bonnedal  Jacob Christensen  Anders Carlström  Anders Berg 《GPS Solutions》2010,14(1):109-120

The GRAS instrument on the Metop-A satellite provides more than 600 radio occultation measurement profiles per day. The instrument is characterized by its wide antenna coverage, high signal-to-noise ratio and an ultra-stable clock reference. The conventional dual-frequency tracking of GPS signals is under dynamic atmosphere conditions complemented by open loop tracking with sampling of the signal at a 1 kHz rate, providing an unprecedented view of the signal spectral environment. This paper presents the instrument performance as derived from analysis of in-orbit measurement data. We show that the noise figure is low enough to enable mapping of external radio noise variations over the earth’s surface. An error propagation model is presented to relate instrument characteristics to bending angle performance. This model is also used to illustrate the relation between filter bandwidth, resolution and measurement noise. The Doppler model, guiding open loop measurements, is found to be accurate to better than 20 Hz with a possibility for improvement to 10 Hz. The high performance at low altitudes enables the presence of surface reflections at the −20-dB level to be identified in more than 50% of the occultations. The potential performance improvements for next generation receivers are discussed.  相似文献